Thursday, December 5, 2019

Old Climate Models Accurately Predicted Climate Crisis and Confirms Solid Ground for Atmospheric Science

Click for photo credit.
The American Association for the Advancement of Science in their flagship publication Science is reporting that old climate models, one of them 50 years old, correctly predicted our current climate crisis. 

The researchers looked at 17 different computer models and found that 10 of them accurately predicted the 0.9 degree Celsius temperature change we have seen since 1970. Five of them were off by about 0.1 degree a decade but improved upon modifying the input factors for accuracy.

What is important about this work is that it demonstrates that climate science is on solid ground. Climate change deniers often point to models as highly inaccurate or as guesstimates of the future. The research described in Science in fact demonstrates that we have a good understanding of atmospheric physics and chemistry.

Our current climate change models are grim. We need to act quickly in order to reduce greenhouse gases in our environment. We know what the future holds. Our accurate scientific models have told us.

No comments: