Each year in this space, I get out the metaphoric patchouli and tarot cards, throw the crystals, and become a swami of sustainability to come up with 10 sustainability predictions for the coming year. There is no doubt that 2020 was a landmark in the history of the world and in the sustainability realm. So what does 2021 have in store for us? Here are my predictions.
1. US gets serious on climate. With the election of Joe Biden, the US will rejoin the Paris Climate Accord and confront four years of backsliding on a range of climate policies.
2. The world confronts consumerism during the pandemic. Over the pandemic, there were big economic losers (local restaurants and small businesses in particular) and big economic winners. Some of the biggest winners were large on-line companies like Amazon. We have shifted huge amounts of money to large companies from mid-sized and small companies. In the coming year, as we come out of pandemic conditions, we will confront what happened to small businesses and try to right the ship. This examination will look at economic equity and environmental consequences of the pandemic economy. It will also drive us to more systematically confront consumerism and the impacts of our spending on the environment and global culture.
3. Environmental equity takes center stage. The appointment of New Mexico Representative Haaland as the head of the Department of Interior in the United States signals that the Biden administration will be taking environmental equity seriously. Haaland will be the first Native American to serve in a cabinet role in the US government. Around the world, environmental equity issues will continue to get significant attention--particularly around indigenous rights in South America and Australia and environmental justice issues in the U.S.
4. Green transportation infrastructure blossoms around the world. One of the things that has held back the growth of electric cars is the lack of green infrastructure--particularly access to charging stations. Expect to see significant improvements in the coming year. In addition, there will be greater attention to bike infrastructure, pedestrian access, and rethinking roadways in a time when more people are working from home and reducing car use.
5. Concerns over office infrastructure as people return to the workplace. The coming year will bring people back to the office and workers will have concerns over basic infrastructure like water supply, coffee makers, and air handlers that have been relatively stagnant for the last year.
6. Industrial agriculture advances sustainability initiatives. Major agricultural companies have moved forward on a range of sustainability initiatives over the last decade. However, look to them becoming much more serious on a range of issues such as organic food, nutrient pollution, and pesticide and herbicide use. In addition, look for large animal processing sites to focus much more on worker rights after the
despicable news of managers betting on which of their workers will get COVID.
7. More energy companies embrace renewables. With the cost of renewable energy declining significantly, more energy companies are diversifying their portfolios and moving away from oil. Expect this trend to continue.
8. Suburbs and peri urban areas become centers of sustainability research. For years I have been saying that urban sustainability is easy and that the hard work is in the suburbs. I predict that the coming year will bring much greater focus to the suburbs and peri urban areas.
9. Organizations look to work from home strategies as a component of greenhouse gas reductions. As we all shifted our worksites from our offices to our homes, organizations discovered that large components of their operations could continue this way into the future thereby reducing the need for physical space. This shift cuts energy costs from transportation and building use and more organizations will look at work from home as a key strategy in greenhouse gas reduction.
10. Ecosystem shifts become more apparent due to climate change. While we have already seen some clear ecosystem shifts in places like the Arctic where the climate has changed most rapidly, expect to see more local evidence of ecosystem shifts throughout our world as climate change continues to impact us.
If you have any predictions you think I missed, leave them in the comments.
